Whoever you are, this has been one of the most stimulating and interesting reads I have read in years. Do not ever stop sharing your view on the world's moving parts, as it would be a crime!
Is there an alternate scenario where instead of halting flow of Canadian oil into PACC3 once the Venezuelan flow is fully operational, that the unrefined Canadian crude can be exported out of the gulf coast at market value to overseas buyers (China), albeit with a significant tax payable to the US government?
Padd 3 is not set up for transshipment. You need dedicated infrastructure for this. It is set up for import refine export. It will take a 2 years at least to build the inventory hold to accommodate a shipping model. It still wouldn't make sense because it's cheaper and faster to use the TMX if you want to get product to asia. Europe does not want or is able to process tar sands. So you're stuck. Us Gulf Coast refineries or Asia. And that means TMX. Or the mentioned crash build-out program for Prince rupert. But that needs to happen now if operation Pompey begins in 2027. Even then the Canadian economy will experience something like a 36 billion dollar loss for one year before full operation. This is assuming that the various legalities are cleared and ground breaks exactly at this very moment for construction.
Currently PADD3 is not "maxed-out" for heavy oil. What about the scenario where PADD3 starts taking both Venezuelan AND Canadian Heavy oil to operate at max efficiency and margins? Meanwhile the displaced light oil get exported (as has been happening in the last few years). So yes, additional supply means prices go down, but they don't collapse from a Storage Panic Discount. China and others can eventually bid too for this now unsanctioned Venezuelan oil, resulting in world oil-market pricing dynamics.
We can assume total world demand stays the same, and now that the Venezuela oil stream which used to be channeled through "Mystery shipments" is going to the US, the overall oil streams will get rebalanced to fill the gap left for other countries (China). As all of this happens oil prices will get re-adjusted to balance the world markets (freeish market dynamics), classic oil price cycles, overall world supply finds equilibrium point.
The US still wins from getting a better oil mix, at cheaper prices, and expanding it's control over energy resources for the future (still get's the C-Length Win over China, and keeps Canada on their toes and compliant). Yes, Alberta takes a profit hit, but they roll-on.
Good Zero Sum analysis, but maybe, (likely) too constricted by hardcore Zero Sum thinking. It rarely is like that in the real world. Too many possibilities. The above is just a first scenario I could think of, but I guess there could be more Zero Sum assumptions in this wargaming that could be challenged. Chaos over conspiracy.
You can double check the numbers. Padd3 is indeed maxed out. They are at 95 to 99% utilization. Additionally some of the refineries are Saudi Arabian owned so you can never use total refining capacity. If you are looking at total refining versus Canadian exports it looks like there's lots of capacity.
This is explicitly for wargaming. It's simply asks the question if the United States wanted to achieve the American Century with the chips that they have how could they do it. Never claimed that this would be the reality.
What I meant is that although Padd3 is maxed out in utilization, they input mix of oils it process still has room to be rebalanced. Aprox 30% - 50% of its current feed is light shale oil. That means there is a lot of capacity to change the mix, processing as much high margin heavy oil as they can (Canadian Tar Sands + Venezuela Merey + Mexican Maya) and export raw or save to the SPR that lower margin lighter Texas shale oil (already being exported to an extent).
Utilization remains at 99%, but heavy oil now makes up a higher % of the input mix (as desired for Gulf refineries).
Now as for wargaming… The US could squeeze and tank the Canadian market anytime now, and could have done so anytime during the last three years. Without the Venezuela catalyst. They still posses their single effective buyer lever. And as stated above, already runs a surplus net exporting oil industry.
It could “afford” to squeeze Canada anytime, but I would imagine it’s actually in their best interest for Canada to continue growing its oil extraction capacity for strategic purposes, rather than choking it and have it rust out as it happened with Venezuela. If war comes, you want the oil machine lubed up and ready to go, not rusted out and in the need of billions and years to start pumping out again.
I really value the quality and depth of your theories and writing, awesome analysis. I do wonder: are we discussing fictional wargaming (and thus, endless possibilities), or do you believe this does have a >5% chance of materializing?
PADD3 can switch 1-1.5MBPD with their current setups toward heavy oil. After that, they start losing margins, throughput and damage to facilities. That’s from 9.5MBPD total processing. So about 10%. You can’t switch more unless it’s a refit with big capex and time required. Motivations are economic, light oil becoming scarce or heavy oil becoming very cheap. We can assume under current conditions that 700 000 bpd is the best compromise with current market conditions.
OPERATION POMPEY is the max imperialist decision tree. It’s deliberate. However, consider that Venezuela becomes more stable over time. With logistics and lower cost, Orinoco oil becomes the preferred feedstock. So even without a deliberate move to undermine Canada’s economy, the US can put the hurt on. This was a wargaming scenario to prove that Canada needs to begin mitigation measure now. But they seem to be very lazy in doing anything.
Time will tell if the US is truly building towards the American Century. Under cover of economics or national protectionism, it’s perfectly acceptable to not book further Canadian imports once current contracts are up.
Thanks for reading. Your comments are appreciated. We can all have different opinions and debate in good faith and civilly. This piece was written to show the maximum win conditions and move set for the American Century if such a plan was in place.
Fascinating read, wargaming or not. Thank you for sharing. One question keeps popping up for me...why now? Your thesis above could have been executed decades ago if it meant this type of heavy oil supply control. You made the point yourself that a Dem or Rep president is irrelevant considering the common goal of world domination.
Because the world is headed towards a time of scarcity not abundance. Now you need to aggressively acquire and defend the resources. The geopolitics make sense once you internalize scarcity. If you still live in the mental space of neoclassical economics of substitability you will miss this conclusion. This is where the green transition gets it wrong. Because if oil was truly substitutable at scale, and efficiently and could maintain economic throughput similar to oil, then we would have transitioned long ago. Neoclassical economics plus green transition activists think that electrons equals oil. And they are about to be proven very very wrong.
Again I think you need to take this back to EROI, and renewables work very well to power society. They however do not work at all to power war machines. If you are going to make a war machine power play now is the time. However even as you put it, if we are in a world of scarce resources one would want to conserve what we have left for good uses and uses alternatives (renewables) for the everyday. Otherwise we have significant structural decline within a decade or two.
You’re right on the technical aspects, but missing the Canadian domestic politics. Yes, Liberals have historically been very green, but under new leadership (Carney) they are trying to change drastically to a “build things” mindset.
Ottawa is now backing Alberta in building the pipeline to the coast, but it’s the province of BC (and concerns from coastal First Nations) that prevent a new pipeline. The coastline North of Vancouver Island are some of the most treacherous waters in the world. I strongly agree with you that Canada needs to find a way to get their pipeline to Prince Rupert.
Also, Canadians are very aware of the potential in Venezuela. I think if you read more on Carneys plans, you’ll find they have a ton of internal obstacles to overcome but are not “currently oblivious to the danger it’s in”. Canadas been very aware ever since Trump threatened their sovereignty
Yeah, I intentionally didn't touch on that because I think the Venezuela aspects in these articles to be highly speculative. I find other sources more convincing that oil prices are too low for oil companies to bother with Venezuela yet (example, https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth).
There is real risk to Canada, and they need to open more markets, but the article's timelines read quite speculative.
Yes it is supposed to be speculative because it is a war game scenario. You are still behaving like a market rationalist. The Imperium does not behave like a market rationalist. The Imperium wants power. So in this scenario it's going to direct the corporate apparatus to ensure it achieves its Imperial goals. This is not about next quarter's earnings. This is about the American Century.
Well I enjoy your technical analysis, I learn a lot reading it, so thank you for putting it together! We don’t need to align on analytical framework :)
"The Chicago buyers effectively get a subsidy paid for by the desperation of the Texas-destined barrels. Canada creates a sale on its own resources, transferring billions of dollars from the Alberta Royalty Pool to US Midwest Refining Margins." Can't the Alberta producers simply cut down production so that there's no left over output for Texas, and hence less of a price impact for the barrels destined to Chicago?
That's a very complicated question. What if you were told: It makes it WORSE.
Our team will have to create a special supplement for you question. The initial analysis was to demonstrate the immense financial stress by situation. Your idea actually causes greater material damage in the long term.
Working draft is about another 3 000 words. You asked. And now you will get the answer so long as you are willing to read it.
A) is it possible for Saudi Aramco to flood the world oil market with so much oil that price collapses to the point it renders the Venezuela gambit insolvent?
B) how does the end of Trump's term affect the timeline? First of all what is the likelihood of another Republican president replacing Trump? If that is not the case, what is the confidence interval that a Democrat president would continue operating out of Venezuela and not just pull out ala Biden's pull out from the middle east?
In regards to question a, there are some serious questions about the exhaustion of the Saudi oil fields. This is a state secret which they will never reveal as they do not need to as a state-owned entity. In regards to question B there is no difference between Democrat and republican. They both want world domination. We can view Joe Biden withdrawal from the Middle East as the correct move for Trump to redeploy the troops into venezuela. Look at the evening news. The initial steps of operation Pompey are beginning to take shape. Trump announced exclusive partnership in order to get any sort of productive barrels out of venezuela.
Northern gateway was surveyed to go to Kitimat not Prince Rupert. Kitimat is gonna be busy with LNG exports particularly after the current export project doubles
So Rupert is the obvious port to target. Won’t be easy. New route and associated engineering plus land rights of way necessary.
I think you could rail diesel to Rupert today for export. You’d need to expand port facilities including rail unloading and tankage.
Don’t see why you can’t export heavy Alberta crude out of the USA gulf coast ports, unless the USA blocks exports for national security reasons of course.
That's a solid point, if this is truly a hard power play then these would be the resultant actions. I think it is many more levels complicated and the US is sadly fumbling the ball based on a simplified game theory.
Where has Venezuela been sourcing the diluent (light end hydrocarbons) needed to blend and flow current heavy production that has been sold and shipped to Cuba, China, Iran and others for the past 25 years? Where have Chavez and Maduro been producing or importing their diligent from? Also, where is Venezuelan Heavy sour oil with metals toxic to refinery catalysts? Where do the Chinese currently refiner this heavy oil?
Diluents came from Russian or Iranian ghost ship. And China / Indian refineries can take the Orinoco heavy oils. They are less efficient than United States Refinery complexes however. So for the last several years their economies have had a small boost as they have been buying sanctioned discounted oil.
Is it possible some of that incremental VZ oil could flow to other refining destinations? For example maybe the refinery at St Croix re-opens? Before shutting it was processing close to 500,000 barrels per day of mostly VZ crude.
The infrastructure has been rotting. You'll need several billion dollars plus two or three years to restart. Perhaps Trump will waive EPA rules but you still need to rebuild it regardless. In this war game padd3 has no pipeline capacity for canada because it wouldn't take it as a transshipment facility. It needs to be physically built for that infrastructure which is again several years. And the whole point of this war game is that the United States is deliberately destroying the Canadian economy to force Alberta secession. So you end up with some pretty strange Roots if Alberta really wanted to get it down there the US won't make it easy. Which increases Transportation costs and therefore the profit margin. It makes more sense for this facility to actually serve as a massive storage tank for Orinoco oil. Because it's only 500 miles away whereas Alberta is 3500 miles away.
How will this new-found wealth benefit americans? Besides the oil cartel, the president and his family, and his oligarchic hangers-on? Large parts of the american economy right now isn’t doing well from what I surmise.
That’s the normal state of affairs for most of human history. The key is that the American Century keeps the government apparatus the global Hegemon. They are trying to retain Power. So long as the US has energy and pricing control, the USD$ will maintain power.
But with their actions the US has broken Hegemony in favour for regional leaders. While this may be able to attain fossil power for war machines it is not enough to sustain global soft power which has now been flushed down the drain for an attempt this regional control system.
What a strange reply. You know there are other powerful players within the WH who want to untether the US dollar from the world’s reserve currency completely. They have a plan, and are convinced they’re right. They don’t care about oil.
I think you are mistaking this dispatch as reality. This is designed specifically as a war game scenario. Near the end it is claimed specifically that since the American Century optimal move set has been exposed than other countries will know how to behave in turn. This is a big what if. But if we actually see the United States taking these actions, even if they don't do it deliberately, displacing Canadian Oil for Venezuelan oil is going to mean a very significant hit against the Canadian economy. And we covered that extensively with financial calculations.
The Greenland question has many good answers. And that is why a hypothesis cannot be generated as cleanly in a causal deterministic manner as the Venezuela plus Canada American Century flow. We will watch the situation. Right now the CIA is unable to give you a confident answer.
We cannot comment directly upon specific companies. But perhaps it would be instructive to see what companies are associated with Trump's Inner Circle. According to the Evening News the beginnings of operation Pompey are in place. Trump is saying there will be no exports of Venezuelan oil unless it goes through a United States company and a United States Refinery first. They are securing the transport Corridor and the diluent loop.
1st, this was a phenomenal read. Like wow. How does one even get into a line of work analyzing things at this level?
Chevron seems like a no brainer. Rubio seems very enamored, did you see the clip of him passing that note to Trump?
What could be an interesting trade are those mid-west refineries whose margins would explode. The timing could be if/when Cushing tankers start filling. I need to research more direct plays (if they exist) than just BP for a real move in the stock prices.
Whoever you are, this has been one of the most stimulating and interesting reads I have read in years. Do not ever stop sharing your view on the world's moving parts, as it would be a crime!
Finally a comprehensive 21st century power politics update to Daniel Yergins “The Prize”. Exceptional piece of analysis and writing.
Is there an alternate scenario where instead of halting flow of Canadian oil into PACC3 once the Venezuelan flow is fully operational, that the unrefined Canadian crude can be exported out of the gulf coast at market value to overseas buyers (China), albeit with a significant tax payable to the US government?
Padd 3 is not set up for transshipment. You need dedicated infrastructure for this. It is set up for import refine export. It will take a 2 years at least to build the inventory hold to accommodate a shipping model. It still wouldn't make sense because it's cheaper and faster to use the TMX if you want to get product to asia. Europe does not want or is able to process tar sands. So you're stuck. Us Gulf Coast refineries or Asia. And that means TMX. Or the mentioned crash build-out program for Prince rupert. But that needs to happen now if operation Pompey begins in 2027. Even then the Canadian economy will experience something like a 36 billion dollar loss for one year before full operation. This is assuming that the various legalities are cleared and ground breaks exactly at this very moment for construction.
The operator has been successfully connected 🫡
Currently PADD3 is not "maxed-out" for heavy oil. What about the scenario where PADD3 starts taking both Venezuelan AND Canadian Heavy oil to operate at max efficiency and margins? Meanwhile the displaced light oil get exported (as has been happening in the last few years). So yes, additional supply means prices go down, but they don't collapse from a Storage Panic Discount. China and others can eventually bid too for this now unsanctioned Venezuelan oil, resulting in world oil-market pricing dynamics.
We can assume total world demand stays the same, and now that the Venezuela oil stream which used to be channeled through "Mystery shipments" is going to the US, the overall oil streams will get rebalanced to fill the gap left for other countries (China). As all of this happens oil prices will get re-adjusted to balance the world markets (freeish market dynamics), classic oil price cycles, overall world supply finds equilibrium point.
The US still wins from getting a better oil mix, at cheaper prices, and expanding it's control over energy resources for the future (still get's the C-Length Win over China, and keeps Canada on their toes and compliant). Yes, Alberta takes a profit hit, but they roll-on.
Good Zero Sum analysis, but maybe, (likely) too constricted by hardcore Zero Sum thinking. It rarely is like that in the real world. Too many possibilities. The above is just a first scenario I could think of, but I guess there could be more Zero Sum assumptions in this wargaming that could be challenged. Chaos over conspiracy.
You can double check the numbers. Padd3 is indeed maxed out. They are at 95 to 99% utilization. Additionally some of the refineries are Saudi Arabian owned so you can never use total refining capacity. If you are looking at total refining versus Canadian exports it looks like there's lots of capacity.
This is explicitly for wargaming. It's simply asks the question if the United States wanted to achieve the American Century with the chips that they have how could they do it. Never claimed that this would be the reality.
What I meant is that although Padd3 is maxed out in utilization, they input mix of oils it process still has room to be rebalanced. Aprox 30% - 50% of its current feed is light shale oil. That means there is a lot of capacity to change the mix, processing as much high margin heavy oil as they can (Canadian Tar Sands + Venezuela Merey + Mexican Maya) and export raw or save to the SPR that lower margin lighter Texas shale oil (already being exported to an extent).
Utilization remains at 99%, but heavy oil now makes up a higher % of the input mix (as desired for Gulf refineries).
Now as for wargaming… The US could squeeze and tank the Canadian market anytime now, and could have done so anytime during the last three years. Without the Venezuela catalyst. They still posses their single effective buyer lever. And as stated above, already runs a surplus net exporting oil industry.
It could “afford” to squeeze Canada anytime, but I would imagine it’s actually in their best interest for Canada to continue growing its oil extraction capacity for strategic purposes, rather than choking it and have it rust out as it happened with Venezuela. If war comes, you want the oil machine lubed up and ready to go, not rusted out and in the need of billions and years to start pumping out again.
I really value the quality and depth of your theories and writing, awesome analysis. I do wonder: are we discussing fictional wargaming (and thus, endless possibilities), or do you believe this does have a >5% chance of materializing?
PADD3 can switch 1-1.5MBPD with their current setups toward heavy oil. After that, they start losing margins, throughput and damage to facilities. That’s from 9.5MBPD total processing. So about 10%. You can’t switch more unless it’s a refit with big capex and time required. Motivations are economic, light oil becoming scarce or heavy oil becoming very cheap. We can assume under current conditions that 700 000 bpd is the best compromise with current market conditions.
OPERATION POMPEY is the max imperialist decision tree. It’s deliberate. However, consider that Venezuela becomes more stable over time. With logistics and lower cost, Orinoco oil becomes the preferred feedstock. So even without a deliberate move to undermine Canada’s economy, the US can put the hurt on. This was a wargaming scenario to prove that Canada needs to begin mitigation measure now. But they seem to be very lazy in doing anything.
Time will tell if the US is truly building towards the American Century. Under cover of economics or national protectionism, it’s perfectly acceptable to not book further Canadian imports once current contracts are up.
Thanks for reading. Your comments are appreciated. We can all have different opinions and debate in good faith and civilly. This piece was written to show the maximum win conditions and move set for the American Century if such a plan was in place.
Fascinating read, wargaming or not. Thank you for sharing. One question keeps popping up for me...why now? Your thesis above could have been executed decades ago if it meant this type of heavy oil supply control. You made the point yourself that a Dem or Rep president is irrelevant considering the common goal of world domination.
Because the world is headed towards a time of scarcity not abundance. Now you need to aggressively acquire and defend the resources. The geopolitics make sense once you internalize scarcity. If you still live in the mental space of neoclassical economics of substitability you will miss this conclusion. This is where the green transition gets it wrong. Because if oil was truly substitutable at scale, and efficiently and could maintain economic throughput similar to oil, then we would have transitioned long ago. Neoclassical economics plus green transition activists think that electrons equals oil. And they are about to be proven very very wrong.
Again I think you need to take this back to EROI, and renewables work very well to power society. They however do not work at all to power war machines. If you are going to make a war machine power play now is the time. However even as you put it, if we are in a world of scarce resources one would want to conserve what we have left for good uses and uses alternatives (renewables) for the everyday. Otherwise we have significant structural decline within a decade or two.
You’re right on the technical aspects, but missing the Canadian domestic politics. Yes, Liberals have historically been very green, but under new leadership (Carney) they are trying to change drastically to a “build things” mindset.
Ottawa is now backing Alberta in building the pipeline to the coast, but it’s the province of BC (and concerns from coastal First Nations) that prevent a new pipeline. The coastline North of Vancouver Island are some of the most treacherous waters in the world. I strongly agree with you that Canada needs to find a way to get their pipeline to Prince Rupert.
Also, Canadians are very aware of the potential in Venezuela. I think if you read more on Carneys plans, you’ll find they have a ton of internal obstacles to overcome but are not “currently oblivious to the danger it’s in”. Canadas been very aware ever since Trump threatened their sovereignty
Exclusive: Vitol to load first diluent cargo under Venezuela supply deal this weekend, sources say | Reuters https://share.google/zXSRrboj54qbkEkYy
You missed the part of the article about timing. The storm arrives in 1-2 years. Building stuff takes 5-10.
It’s 9000+ words. The timing lag is in there. You’ll probably need to read this 2 or 3 times.
Yeah, I intentionally didn't touch on that because I think the Venezuela aspects in these articles to be highly speculative. I find other sources more convincing that oil prices are too low for oil companies to bother with Venezuela yet (example, https://open.substack.com/pub/paulkrugman/p/the-emperors-new-oil-wealth).
There is real risk to Canada, and they need to open more markets, but the article's timelines read quite speculative.
Yes it is supposed to be speculative because it is a war game scenario. You are still behaving like a market rationalist. The Imperium does not behave like a market rationalist. The Imperium wants power. So in this scenario it's going to direct the corporate apparatus to ensure it achieves its Imperial goals. This is not about next quarter's earnings. This is about the American Century.
Well I enjoy your technical analysis, I learn a lot reading it, so thank you for putting it together! We don’t need to align on analytical framework :)
"The Chicago buyers effectively get a subsidy paid for by the desperation of the Texas-destined barrels. Canada creates a sale on its own resources, transferring billions of dollars from the Alberta Royalty Pool to US Midwest Refining Margins." Can't the Alberta producers simply cut down production so that there's no left over output for Texas, and hence less of a price impact for the barrels destined to Chicago?
That's a very complicated question. What if you were told: It makes it WORSE.
Our team will have to create a special supplement for you question. The initial analysis was to demonstrate the immense financial stress by situation. Your idea actually causes greater material damage in the long term.
Working draft is about another 3 000 words. You asked. And now you will get the answer so long as you are willing to read it.
Cant wait for it!
Very much look forward to this as this is the norm in forestry and would like to understand how this differs.
Looking forward to this. Alberta has some recent experience of applying government production limits to reduce the WTI-WCS spread.
Does the US grant asylum for disgruntled Canadians? Asking for a friend.
Very soon Alberta will become part of the United states. So you just need to move there
About 20% of Alberta’s want to separate from Canada. What are you going to do about the rest?
Jeff, you don’t find anything at all suspicious here?
Questions (for further analysis)
A) is it possible for Saudi Aramco to flood the world oil market with so much oil that price collapses to the point it renders the Venezuela gambit insolvent?
B) how does the end of Trump's term affect the timeline? First of all what is the likelihood of another Republican president replacing Trump? If that is not the case, what is the confidence interval that a Democrat president would continue operating out of Venezuela and not just pull out ala Biden's pull out from the middle east?
In regards to question a, there are some serious questions about the exhaustion of the Saudi oil fields. This is a state secret which they will never reveal as they do not need to as a state-owned entity. In regards to question B there is no difference between Democrat and republican. They both want world domination. We can view Joe Biden withdrawal from the Middle East as the correct move for Trump to redeploy the troops into venezuela. Look at the evening news. The initial steps of operation Pompey are beginning to take shape. Trump announced exclusive partnership in order to get any sort of productive barrels out of venezuela.
Northern gateway was surveyed to go to Kitimat not Prince Rupert. Kitimat is gonna be busy with LNG exports particularly after the current export project doubles
So Rupert is the obvious port to target. Won’t be easy. New route and associated engineering plus land rights of way necessary.
I think you could rail diesel to Rupert today for export. You’d need to expand port facilities including rail unloading and tankage.
Don’t see why you can’t export heavy Alberta crude out of the USA gulf coast ports, unless the USA blocks exports for national security reasons of course.
If US was willing to go that far to undermine Canada/stop oil flows to China, why wouldn't they just put a drone or two off Prince Rupert?
If the world is actually going that way, another pipeline doesn't do anything.
That's a solid point, if this is truly a hard power play then these would be the resultant actions. I think it is many more levels complicated and the US is sadly fumbling the ball based on a simplified game theory.
Where has Venezuela been sourcing the diluent (light end hydrocarbons) needed to blend and flow current heavy production that has been sold and shipped to Cuba, China, Iran and others for the past 25 years? Where have Chavez and Maduro been producing or importing their diligent from? Also, where is Venezuelan Heavy sour oil with metals toxic to refinery catalysts? Where do the Chinese currently refiner this heavy oil?
Diluents came from Russian or Iranian ghost ship. And China / Indian refineries can take the Orinoco heavy oils. They are less efficient than United States Refinery complexes however. So for the last several years their economies have had a small boost as they have been buying sanctioned discounted oil.
Is it possible some of that incremental VZ oil could flow to other refining destinations? For example maybe the refinery at St Croix re-opens? Before shutting it was processing close to 500,000 barrels per day of mostly VZ crude.
The infrastructure has been rotting. You'll need several billion dollars plus two or three years to restart. Perhaps Trump will waive EPA rules but you still need to rebuild it regardless. In this war game padd3 has no pipeline capacity for canada because it wouldn't take it as a transshipment facility. It needs to be physically built for that infrastructure which is again several years. And the whole point of this war game is that the United States is deliberately destroying the Canadian economy to force Alberta secession. So you end up with some pretty strange Roots if Alberta really wanted to get it down there the US won't make it easy. Which increases Transportation costs and therefore the profit margin. It makes more sense for this facility to actually serve as a massive storage tank for Orinoco oil. Because it's only 500 miles away whereas Alberta is 3500 miles away.
How will this new-found wealth benefit americans? Besides the oil cartel, the president and his family, and his oligarchic hangers-on? Large parts of the american economy right now isn’t doing well from what I surmise.
That’s the normal state of affairs for most of human history. The key is that the American Century keeps the government apparatus the global Hegemon. They are trying to retain Power. So long as the US has energy and pricing control, the USD$ will maintain power.
But with their actions the US has broken Hegemony in favour for regional leaders. While this may be able to attain fossil power for war machines it is not enough to sustain global soft power which has now been flushed down the drain for an attempt this regional control system.
What a strange reply. You know there are other powerful players within the WH who want to untether the US dollar from the world’s reserve currency completely. They have a plan, and are convinced they’re right. They don’t care about oil.
There is a mini section covering that. At this point it looks like most people do not actually read the full 9000 words.
Don’t be petty, what did I miss? I’m here to be educated and I figure you can handle a little pushback.
I think you are mistaking this dispatch as reality. This is designed specifically as a war game scenario. Near the end it is claimed specifically that since the American Century optimal move set has been exposed than other countries will know how to behave in turn. This is a big what if. But if we actually see the United States taking these actions, even if they don't do it deliberately, displacing Canadian Oil for Venezuelan oil is going to mean a very significant hit against the Canadian economy. And we covered that extensively with financial calculations.
Got it. Luckily I'm reading many other sources of information.
Don’t pay attention to what they say. Pay attention to what they do.
This was phenomenal, thank you for sharing!
Where does Greenland fit into this (if it does), and why Trump's strong push to acquire Greenland?
The Greenland question has many good answers. And that is why a hypothesis cannot be generated as cleanly in a causal deterministic manner as the Venezuela plus Canada American Century flow. We will watch the situation. Right now the CIA is unable to give you a confident answer.
Thanks for the reply! Are there any equities that your team is watching?
The tankers are up quite significantly which falls in line with your thesis
We cannot comment directly upon specific companies. But perhaps it would be instructive to see what companies are associated with Trump's Inner Circle. According to the Evening News the beginnings of operation Pompey are in place. Trump is saying there will be no exports of Venezuelan oil unless it goes through a United States company and a United States Refinery first. They are securing the transport Corridor and the diluent loop.
1st, this was a phenomenal read. Like wow. How does one even get into a line of work analyzing things at this level?
Chevron seems like a no brainer. Rubio seems very enamored, did you see the clip of him passing that note to Trump?
What could be an interesting trade are those mid-west refineries whose margins would explode. The timing could be if/when Cushing tankers start filling. I need to research more direct plays (if they exist) than just BP for a real move in the stock prices.