UN Medium Population Estimate is Optimistic
Data Driven Science
The UN uses an S-shaped demographic transition model for all countries. This happens regardless of culture or developmental status. TFR starts off high, declines and then converges/rebounds to country specific curves by 2100. This is observably incorrect so far via empirical TFR trends, most notably from Asian countries.
This is a general critique upon the UN modeling assumptions.
If you are using math to justify your assumptions of what the desired end result is, you are not longer performing science.
The entire world has based its planning around the UN’s authoritative and arbitrary predictions.
The truth is no one can truly predict any country’s population number in the year 2100. We can only develop models to understand the near future and the general trajectory/shape of the future. We can place boundary conditions on likelihoods and constrain the possibility space. But such assumptions should be based on reality instead of convenient offsets or political agendas.
The points of contention: the anchoring TFR value and its year anchor are arbitrary.
The below graphs have applied a 0.8 TFR floor is neither optimistic nor pessimistic.
This is the same logic applied with the 1.4 TFR FLOOR applied in the previous dispatch.
And in spite of that, the model shows 5.5B at 2100 vs UN LOW at 7B.
This is what happens when we look the dragon in the eye and don’t blink.
What if TFR trends do not rebound? What if they are simply stagnant? Nations at the 0.8 TFR FLOOR do not proceed below it. Nations with a declining TFR trend follow until they hit that same floor. We assume the East Asian economies won’t plunge even further into demographic decline. If any modeled countries decline and hit 0.8, they are also stopped from going any further.
This is a simple empirically based extrapolation. It’s the tail risk scenario UN didn’t model.
If we do not imagine a latent risk possibility, we cannot prepare for it. It does not mean that the risk will factually materialize. But policymakers are presuming certainty within a chaotic non linear system.
The UN has begun to acknowledge this with significant downward revisions to long term population projections. UN2017 estimated the peak population at 11B by 2100. UN2024 now shows 10B by 2084. This is 20 year difference and a mathematical elimination of 1B future humans.
WORLD CONTINENTAL REGIONS - REALISTIC 0.8 TFR FLOOR
AFRICA – 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
ASIA - 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
EUROPE - 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
The continent is under existential threat. The upper level government ministers know this. This graph explains the extreme pro-immigration policy.
NORTH AMERICA - 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
Here we can see what the similar effects of not modeling migration has on a region’s curve that Europe demonstrated.
SOUTH AMERICA - 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
OCEANIA – 0.8 TFR FLOOR APPLIED
CIA Brief
The mainstream institutions are ignoring a risk vector of a demographic cliff.
Global population peaks 2040-2050. Massive implications for every single sector of the economy. If we build out too much and there’s no demand, it was a waste of time, resources, and energy. UN MED as the primary planning tool might be proven wrong by 3 decades.
High synchronicity across all regional curves except Africa. Africa will likely determine the population curve of the entire world.
The next dispatch will cover the construction of the CIA demographic engine, it’s calibration regime, and the accuracy against UN population forecasts from the past in regards to 20 year prediction horizons.
The CIA will detail the UN’s shift of methodology in regards to predictive frameworks. The current UN methods are unfalsifiable.
Which is the opposite of good science. Since you can always claim your catch-all predictions were correct.
At the very bottom of this we will add one more graph. As mentioned before, the UN lazily applied a LE improvement from US observed data from 1950-2020. They applied this pattern globally without regard to technology or the starting point of a country.
The graph below is what happens when we tune the LE improvement on a per continent basis.
Peak year moves earlier by 5 years and 300M humans are deleted by 2100.
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